Behavioural Sciences

Download e-book for iPad: Cognition and Chance: The Psychology of Probabilistic by Raymond S. Nickerson

By Raymond S. Nickerson

inability to imagine probabilistically makes one liable to numerous irrational fears and prone to scams designed to take advantage of probabilistic naiveté, impairs choice making lower than uncertainty, allows the misinterpretation of statistical details, and precludes serious evaluate of chance claims. Cognition and Chance offers an summary of the knowledge had to keep away from such pitfalls and to evaluate and reply to probabilistic events in a rational manner. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how sturdy everyone is at considering probabilistically and the way constant their reasoning below uncertainty is with ideas of mathematical information and likelihood idea. He reports proof that has been produced in researchers' makes an attempt to enquire those and comparable kinds of questions. Seven conceptual chapters handle such subject matters as likelihood, likelihood, randomness, coincidences, inverse likelihood, paradoxes, dilemmas, and records. the remainder 5 chapters concentrate on empirical reports of people' talents and obstacles as probabilistic thinkers. issues comprise estimation and prediction, notion of covariation, selection below uncertainty, and folks as intuitive probabilists.

Cognition and Chance is meant to entice researchers and scholars within the components of chance, records, psychology, enterprise, economics, choice idea, and social dilemmas.

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Cognition and Chance: The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning by Raymond S. Nickerson

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